A storm system in the Gulf of Mexico, which isn’t expected to develop until Friday at the earliest, is forecast to track along or near the Eastern Seaboard, spreading precipitation and gusty winds this weekend and into next week.
Exactly how much rain will fall, and where, was not immediately clear. But one thing is for sure: Similar to last weekend, this will be a reasonably warm system overall, dropping mostly rain as far north as New England and eastern Canada, though it will be cold enough in some places along the storm’s western fringes for the precipitation to fall as snow.
Here is what we know, and don’t know, about the storm system.
The forecast is uncertain.
Most computer weather models that meteorologists rely on to predict the weather agree that the storm will take shape in the Gulf of Mexico and track through the Eastern United States into Canada, but the models don’t all show the same exact path of the storm.
The location of the center of the storm system and the timing of its progression will determine which areas will receive the most rain, wind and potentially severe weather, the National Weather Service office in the Tampa Bay, Fla., area wrote in its Thursday morning forecast.
New York forecasters know the storm is coming, but the farther away from the moment of a storm’s initiation, the harder it is to predict the precise path it will take. The varying weather models for the storm show a large range of possibilities, from skirting up the East Coast to running up the spine of the Appalachian Mountains. The latest trend in the computer forecast models shows the storm tracking farther inland, spreading the rainfall farther west in the eastern United States on Sunday.
Even with this trend, the likelihood of excessive rainfall is greater along the coast. Even a low risk of extreme rainfall could lead to flooding in Florida on Saturday and into the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday.
Here’s what we know about the timing of the storm.
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Friday evening and overnight: A winter storm system develops over the Gulf of Mexico.
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Saturday into Sunday: Rain begins spreading across Florida. Saturday night into Sunday, the storm moves inland and begins its track northeast. On Sunday, the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will likely be soaked in rain.
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Sunday evening into Monday: The storm brings heavy rain to the Northeast. By Monday evening, the storm will move into Canada.
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Tuesday: Colder air will begin to wrap around the storm system as it races farther into eastern Canada, increasing the chances of snow, particularly in the Appalachians, the Great Lakes region and Ontario. Lingering coastal showers could continue through the day.
Winter is just getting started.
This warmth and rain doesn’t sit well for snow lovers. It is early in the season, though.
Meteorological winter, based on the temperature cycle, has been with us for only two weeks, and astronomical winter, based on the position of the Earth in relation to the sun, doesn’t start for another week.
This is also an El Niño winter. In 2015, during another El Niño, it was incredibly warm throughout December. On Christmas Eve that year in Albany, N.Y., and Burlington, Vt., the temperature reached 72 degrees and 68 degrees, respectively — the highest ever recorded in each city during meteorological winter.
In late January 2016, however, a significant winter storm dropped up to 42 inches of snow in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, disrupting the lives of more than 100 million people with widespread power outages, coastal flooding and blizzard conditions. Central Park in New York City received 27.5 inches of snow, making it the biggest snowstorm there since officials began recording them in 1869.
The lesson: Yes, this upcoming storm will be a rainstorm, but residents of the Northeast shouldn’t write off winter just yet.
