Tag: Bear Market

Trump Tariff Jitters Rock Wall Street; S&P, Dow, Nasdaq Slide Amid Global Market Turmoil – News18
Last Updated:April 07, 2025, 23:08 IST

The Dow Jones fell 1,343 points (3.5%), and the Nasdaq dropped 4.2% amid trade war fears. The S&P 500 was down 3.8%, nearing a “bear market” after losing over 20%.

A screen displays the Dow Jones Industrial Average after the closing bell on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US. (IMAGE: REUTERS)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1,343 points, or 3.5%, as of 9:35 a.m. Eastern time, while the Nasdaq composite dropped 4.2%. Financial markets worldwide saw worsening losses on Monday, amid rising concerns that US President Donald Trump’s tariffs might ignite a trade war and harm the global economy.

The S&P 500 declined by 3.8% in early trading, following its worst week since the COVID-19 pandemic began impacting the global economy in March. This index, significant for many investors’ 401(k) accounts, has decreased by over 20% since reaching a record high less than two months ago.

If the S&P 500 closes the day below this level, it would mark a significant drop. Wall Street terms this a “bear market,” indicating a downturn more severe than the typical 10% drop, which occurs approximately every year, and signalling a more intense downward trend.

ALSO READ: US Federal Reserve To Hold Closed Meeting After Trump’s Call To Cut Rates Amid Tariff Blitz

Markets across the globe took another bruising as the financial fallout deepened. Hong Kong stocks crashed 13.2%, logging their worst day since the 1997 handover. Crude oil briefly slipped below $60 a barrel for the first time since 2021, dragged down by fears that a trade-war-strained global economy will slow demand. Even Bitcoin, which had held relatively firm, slumped below $78,000—well off its January peak of over $100,000.

Wall Street’s pain, however, doesn’t appear to be moving Donald Trump. The Republican, who once tied his success to stock market highs, now seems unfazed by the downturn. Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump said he didn’t want the markets to fall—but added, “sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”

Still, some investors are betting on a climbdown. There’s hope that Trump could dial back tariffs after fresh negotiations. He hinted as much on Sunday, saying world leaders were “dying to make a deal.” A quick resolution could stave off a recession, according to experts speaking to the Associated Press

Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty logged their worst single-day decline in 10 months, as fears that Trump’s policies on reciprocal tariffs may lead to recession and higher inflation in the US going ahead unnerved investors.

With Monday’s sharp fall, the benchmark indices suffered one of their worst declines in five years.

In a horrible day for investors, the 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex tanked 2,226.79 points, or 2.95 per cent, to settle at 73,137.90. During the day, the benchmark index slumped 3,939.68 points, or 5.22 per cent, to 71,425.01.

The NSE Nifty tumbled 742.85 points, or 3.24 per cent, to settle at 22,161.60. Intra-day, the benchmark dropped 1,160.8 points, or 5.06 per cent, to 21,743.65.

Bourses in Poland’s Warsaw and Pakistan’s Karachi suspended trading amid the selloff. The Warsaw Stock Exchange suspended trade across all its markets for over an hour on Monday, citing “safety reasons” following a surge in volatility and order volumes.

A spokesperson told Bloomberg the pause was prompted by unusually high market swings and a flood of trades just ahead of the US market opening. Trading was halted at 3:15 p.m. local time, with a full resumption set for 4:30 p.m. Pre-opening transactions are scheduled to be matched from 4:15 p.m.

Trading was suspended at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) for an hour as the benchmark KSE-100 index plummeted by more than 8,000 points on Monday.
News business Trump Tariff Jitters Rock Wall Street; S&P, Dow, Nasdaq Slide Amid Global Market Turmoil
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April 7, 2025
Indian Markets Sink For Second Day Amid Tariff Shock: Time To Rejig Your Portfolio? – News18

Last Updated:April 04, 2025, 10:32 IST

Investors are spooked amid escalating risk-off sentiment triggered by sweeping tariffs: How retail investors can navigate the storm

What Should Be Your Stock Market Investment Strategy Now?

What Should Investors Do Now? Investors worldwide are scaling back equity exposure amid escalating risk-off sentiment triggered by sweeping tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump. Fears of a global trade war, looming recession in the US—the “Mother Market”—and domestic growth concerns have collectively weighed on sentiment, dragging markets lower across the globe.

Wall Street and Asian equities registered sharp losses overnight. In contrast, Indian benchmarks—the Nifty 50 and Sensex—closed marginally lower in the previous session, slipping around 0.3% each. Despite the muted fall, negative sentiment continues to loom.

Volatility Ahead, Caution Advised

Market volatility is expected to persist in the near term, said Rajesh Palviya, Head of Technical Research at Axis Securities. He suggests increasing cash allocation by up to 10% and using market dips to gradually accumulate high-quality stocks.

Axis Securities maintains a bullish stance on large private banks, telecom, consumption, hospitals, and interest-rate-sensitive sectors. Palviya also sees long-term potential in select capex-driven stocks following recent corrections. However, the firm remains cautious on the IT sector due to anticipated weakness in U.S. discretionary tech spending.

How Retail Investors Can Navigate the Storm

Indian Pharma

The sector rallied recently, as it remained largely unaffected by Trump’s tariff measures. However, caution is advised — this reprieve may not last, and valuations remain stretched.

Large-Cap Value

With the Nifty trading at around 17x price-to-earnings, large-caps present relative value. Mid- and small-caps, however, continue to appear overvalued. That said, persistent foreign investor outflows — possibly driven by redemptions in emerging market funds — could keep pressure on large-caps in the short term, leaving them either range-bound or trending lower.

Focus on Domestic-Facing Stocks

Companies with a strong domestic demand base — such as banks, FMCG, and infrastructure players — are likely to be more resilient. Still, investors must remain mindful of elevated valuations in certain pockets.

Adopt a Cautious Stance

The Indian market is unlikely to remain immune to global turmoil. With financial markets across the board under pressure, India cannot entirely buck the trend. While divergence may occur over time, this appears to be the early phase of a prolonged economic conflict. Investors should avoid chasing rallies and instead consider incremental investments. Market volatility is expected to persist, creating periodic opportunities — but FOMO (fear of missing out) should be avoided.

Stay Diversified

In light of ongoing global uncertainties and a weakening US dollar, gold remains a strong diversifier with upside potential. A prudent strategy would be to maintain a balanced portfolio across equities, gold, and fixed-income assets, as the contours of a new global economic order continue to take shape.

News business » markets Indian Markets Sink For Second Day Amid Tariff Shock: Time To Rejig Your Portfolio?

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April 4, 2025
US Shares Reach New Highs, Boosting World Stocks Amid Rate Hike Speculations

U.S. shares struck new highs for the year on Friday, setting world stocks up for gains for the week, as rising bets that the Federal Reserve will skip a rate hike next week overshadowed worries about U.S. markets being drained of cash.

Helped by a surge in Tesla Inc, which jumped as much as 5.7%, the S&P 500 rose to levels last seen in August before receding by mid-day to be little changed. The Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also pared earlier gains to stand flat.

Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 index lost 0.13%, but MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 0.74% overnight. Combined with gains on Wall Street, the MSCI’s broadest index of world stocks added 0.14% to hover under a 13-month high. For the week, the index for world stocks might notch a 0.4% rise.

“As of today, the S&P 500 is back in a bull market,” said Arthur Hogan, chief market strategist at Briley Wealth, noting that the index finished Thursday with a 20% gain off its recent lows. “The one thing that could tip over the apple cart is an over-aggressive Fed.”

Refinitiv data showed the S&P 500 up 20% from its Oct. 12 closing low. The most commonly accepted definition of a bull market is a 20% rise off a low, and a 20% decline from a high for a bear market, but that is open to interpretation.

Traders now lay 73% odds on the Fed keeping rates steady on June 14, in a range of 5%-5.25%, pausing its most aggressive hiking cycle since the 1980s.

Bets for a pause were supported by data on Thursday that showed the number of Americans filing new jobless claims surged to a more than 1 1/2-year high, indicating a loosening labour market that could further quell inflation.

Investors also hope the Fed will pause its rate rise campaign as a quirk of the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations has posed a potential threat to market liquidity.

The U.S. government is expected to rush to sell short-term debt to replenish its Treasury General Account (TGA), potentially at yields so high that banks raise deposit rates to compete for funding, reducing interest in riskier assets like equities.

“We’re all worried about liquidity,” said Ben Jones, director of macro research at Invesco. The Fed, he added, “still wants to tighten” policy and therefore may allow the TGA rebuild to drain liquidity from markets without stepping in to provide other support tools.

This fear was not dominating trading on Friday, however.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on May 19 it was still unclear if U.S. interest rates will need to rise further, and the risks of overtightening or undertightening had become more balanced.

YIELDS UP

Uncertainty about the U.S. rates outlook supported Treasury yields.

Two-year Treasury yields, which are extremely sensitive to monetary policy expectations, rose 7 basis points to 4.589%, while the yield on benchmark 10-year notes US10YT=RR rose 3.9 basis points to 3.753%. [US/]

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the performance of the U.S. currency against six others, rebounded 0.21% to 103.47.

The euro slipped 0.32% to $1.0748, just below Thursday’s two-week high of $1.0787. [USD/]

Elsewhere, the Turkish lira hit a new record low overnight of 23.54 per dollar, even as President Tayyip Erdogan’s appointment of a U.S. banker as central bank chief sent a strong signal for a return to more orthodox policy.

Erdogan last week put well-regarded former finance minister Mehmet Simsek back in the post. Simsek said this week that the guiding principles for the economy would be transparency, consistency, accountability and predictability.

Leading crypto asset bitcoin dipped 0.2% to $26,648 after crypto exchange Binance said it was suspending dollar deposits and would soon pause fiat currency withdrawal channels following a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission crackdown.

Crude oil edged higher but gains were tempered by a report that the United States and Iran were close to a nuclear deal, although denials from both parties kept it off the previous session’s lows.

The prospect of a deal, which reportedly included scope for an additional 1 million barrels per day of Iranian supply, initially dented crude prices.

Brent crude futures fell by as much as 0.9% at one point, before reversing course to last trade flat at $76.00 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude was also steady at $71.28 a barrel. [O/R]

(This story has not been edited by News18 staff and is published from a syndicated news agency feed – Reuters)

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June 9, 2023
Market This Week: US Banking Crisis, FIIs, Fed Meeting, and Other Factors to Watch Out For

The domestic market experienced another week of disappointment with the benchmark indices shedding nearly 2 per cent in a ripple effect of the banking crisis in the US. A last-hour buying on Friday, however, helped it pare some losses following a rescue package to San Francisco-based First Republic Bank and financial aid to Credit Suisse. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 355.06 points or 0.62 per cent to settle at 57,989.90 on Friday. The broader NSE Nifty gained 114.45 points or 0.67 per cent to end at 17,100.05.

For fresh cues, market participants will keenly watch out for next week’s US Federal Reserve monetary policy outcome and foward-looking guidance. Crude oil and the Indian currency will also play a crucial role in market movement. Apart from this, the Japanese inflation rate for February will be announced on 24 March, 2023.

“In absence of any major domestic event, the focus would be on the upcoming FOMC meet scheduled on March 21-22. Besides, movement in crude and trend of foreign flows will also be in focus for cues,” said Ajit Mishra, VP – Technical Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

US FOMC Meet

The US Federal Reserve policy meeting on March 21-22 will be a key event to watch out for this week. Experts largely expect the Fed to continue with its rate hike path given the inflation above its 2 percent long-term target, though eased to 6 per cent in February from 6.4 percent in January. The core inflation also eased to 5.5 per cent from 5.6 per cent in same period.

US Banking Crisis

The market participants will also keep a close watch on the crisis in the US banking space especially after Silicon Valley Bank filed for bankruptcy and Signature Bank went shut.

San Francisco-based First Republic Bank was the third one facing similar kind of issues but was saved with a $30-billion lifeline from 11 major US banks, including JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, bringing back the memories of the 2008 global financial crisis.

Experts largely believe the crisis is not only restricted to the US but also seems to be in other parts of world.

In the passing week, Credit Suisse also received a credit line of up to $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank to boost liquidity, but experts are still watching it closely.

Oil Prices

Oil prices also caught in a bear trap, after crisis in the banking sector, posting the biggest weekly decline in the current calendar year. Any fall is always a welcome from oil importing countries like India but needs to be watched closely whether the decline is sustainable or not, said experts who still expect supply constraints may continue to support the prices.

Corporate Action

Hindustan Aeronautics, Ujjivan Financial Services, GAIL India, SAIL, NALCO, Sun TV Network, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC, and Glenmark Life Sciences will trade ex-dividend next week.

Nifty Technical

“Markets may take a breather initially however the upside also seems capped. Nifty could face hurdles around the 17,250-17,400 zone while the 16,600-16,800 zone would provide the needed cushion, in case the situation deteriorates further,” Mishra said.

After showing high volatility at the swing low of 16850 levels on Thursday, Nifty showed a sustainable upmove with volatility on Friday and closed the day higher by 114 points, said Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.

A small body of negative candle was formed on the daily chart with long lower shadow. Technically, this pattern, Shetti said, indicates a formation of long legged doji type candle pattern (not a classical one). “Hence, we observe back to back doji pattern in the last two sessions. The current market action suggests that market is in the process of near term bottom formation,” he said.

“Nifty on the weekly chart has formed a long bear candle with lower shadow. The negative chart pattern like lower tops and bottoms is intact on the daily chart and the swing low of Thursday at 16850 could be considered as a new lower bottom of the sequence. One may expect Nifty to move up from here towards the next overhead resistance of 17300-17350 levels by next week. Immediate support is at 16950 levels,” Shetti said.

Bank Nifty

Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd., said: “Banknifty also formed a kind of spinning bottom candlestick formation near the important support level of 38700 and managed to sustain above the 39400 level. Now we can expect a short-covering move towards the 40000 and 40500 levels. On the downside, 38700–38500 is a strong demand zone.”

What Should Investors Do This Week?

Since we’re witnessing a mixed trend across sectors, Mishra said that traders should continue with stock-specific approach, with a focus on overnight risk management.

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March 20, 2023
Market This Week: Macro Data, FIIs, Global Cues, and Other Factors to Watch Out For

The Indian markets shall mainly be influenced by multiple factors including macroeconomic data, Indian and US inflation data, and global cues among others in the coming week, according to analysts.

This week, investors will be looking for the major macroeconomic data starting with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February to be out on March 13. Also, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data for February will be released a day later, on March 14. On the same day, the market participants will be eyeing the Balance of Payment (Exports and Imports) data. The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) will come out with the total passenger vehicle sales data on the same day. The foreign exchange reserves data is going to be released on March 17.

Meanwhile, the second phase of the Budget session will begin on Monday (March 13) and will continue till April 6. During the session, the focus will be on the discussion of the demands for grants for various ministries apart from the government’s legislative agenda.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said: “The global market has fallen back into the grip of uncertainty following the Fed chief’s comment that signalled the possibility of a prolonged and faster rate hike, contradicting a dovish comment made by another Fed official last week. The market now anticipates a 50 bps rate hike, which has pushed the dollar index to a three-month high. Selling intensified towards the end of the week following further negative cues from the US market and as the market awaited the release of US unemployment and non-farm payroll data, which will have a significant impact on the upcoming Fed meeting.”

Key factors that will keep traders busy next week:

CPI Inflation

The monthly retail inflation for February will be released on March 13 and WPI inflation on March 14. The market will closely watch both data points as it is expected to decide the next course of action by the Reserve Bank of India in its next policy meeting scheduled in the first week of April.

“We expect CPI inflation to have moderated in February, after the material upside surprise in January. We forecast February CPI inflation at 6.3 percent YoY and expect the RBI’s preferred core inflation measure to have edged down to 6 percent YoY in February, partly due to a high base,” Rahul Bajoria, MD & Head of EM Asia (ex-China) Economics, Barclays said.

Adani Group Stocks

Adani Group stocks may remain in focus as a Financial Times reported that Gautam Adani, who owns diversified Adani group, is planning to sell stake worth around $450 million in Ambuja Cements. The group holds 63 percent stake in Ambuja Cements which was acquired for $10.5 billion last year.

Further, both the leading bourses NSE and BSE on March 10 said two Adani Group firms — Adani Transmission and Adani Total Gas — will be put under the second stage of the long term additional surveillance measures framework, effective from March 13 as per the circular available on the exchanges.

Adani Enterprises, Adani Power and Adani Wilmar are already under the short-term additional surveillance measure (ASM) framework Stage – I since March 9, while NDTV and Adani Green Energy are already under the long term ASM framework Stage – II.

Nifty – Technical Outlook

Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President of Technical Research at Kotak Securities, said technically, the Nifty has formed a strong bearish candle on weekly charts and it is comfortably trading below the 20 and 50-day SMA. “For the positional traders, 17,550 would act as a medium-term resistance zone and below the same, the index could slip till 17150.

On the flip side, a minor pullback rally is possible, if the index trades above 17425 and could move up to 17480-17500. Meanwhile, Bank Nifty also breached the important support level of 41,000 or 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) which is broadly negative. Below the same, the Bank Nifty could retest the level of 40,000-39,800,” he concluded.

Silicon Valley Bank Crisis

According to stock market experts, falling banking stocks dragged other key benchmark indices like Nifty and Sensex on Friday session. But, Silicon Valley Bank news of bankruptcy won’t last long as it is completely sentimental news for Dalal Street. From fundamental perspective, Indian banks are completely insulated from Silicon Valley Bank and margins of Indian banks have improved in recent quarterly results. They advised bargain hunters to buy quality banking stocks in this fall as these banking stocks would bounce back strongly during trend reversal.

Speaking on the Silicon Valley Bank crisis and its impact on Indian stock market, Avinash Gorakshkar, Head of Research at Profitmart Securities said, “From fundamental perspective, Indian banks have no connect with SVB crisis neither the American bank has any penetration in Indian corporate sector. So, the stock market crash on Friday was only sentimental as bias was already negative on Dalal Street.”

US Inflation

Globally investors will keep an eye on US inflation numbers scheduled on March 14, which is more important for the Federal Reserve before taking decision on interest rates in next policy meeting on March 22.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his testimony last week continued with his statement saying higher and potential aggressive policy tightening is needed to control and bring inflation to 2 percent target, but that will still be data dependent.

ECB Interest Rate Decision

Next week, we will also have an interest rate decision to be taken by the European Central Bank on March 16 and February inflation of European Union on March 17.

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March 13, 2023