In an aerial view, Ford Broncos are seen for sale on a lot at a dealership on April 18, 2025 in Austin, Texas.
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At car dealerships across the country, consumers are rushing to buy new vehicles ahead of tariff-related price hikes. Some shoppers have also replaced iPhones early.
Yet when it comes to other items, retailers aren’t seeing widespread stock-ups or huge waves of early purchases due to tariffs — or at least not yet. Instead, U.S. shoppers seem hesitant to spend and inclined to delay purchases rather than speed them up, according to consumer surveys by market researchers and early reads from the Federal Reserve.
Consumer spending, excluding autos, was lower overall across the country, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book report on economic conditions released on Wednesday. Five of the Fed’s districts saw slight growth in economic activity, four districts had slight to modest declines and three reported relatively unchanged trends since the central bank’s previous release in early March.
Most districts saw moderate to robust sales of vehicles and some nondurable items, which the report attributed to “a rush to purchase ahead of tariff-related price increases.” Yet both leisure and business travel were down, and the report noted that “uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive across [district] reports.”
Beyond some of the pricier purchases that stand to cost a lot more even under a 10% tariff on imports, early data suggests the duties have intensified consumers’ desire to watch their wallets closely as they wait to see how Trump’s trade policy unfolds. Companies from Chipotle to PepsiCo and American Airlines said this week that they’re seeing pockets of slower spending.
U.S. shoppers have adopted “a conservation mentality” for their cash as they follow fast-changing headlines and see wild swings in the stock market — and their savings and retirement accounts, said Steve Zurek, vice president of thought leadership at NielsenIQ.
“There’s so much uncertainty right now that shoppers just don’t know what to do,” he said. “There’s nowhere to hide here — all they can do is control the household economics they have.”
Some survey results have backed up a theory that shoppers are kicking the can rather than accelerating purchases: about 35% of U.S. consumers said they planned to put off a major purchase, such as a home, car, appliance or furniture because of tariffs, according to a NielsenIQ survey. That compares with just 7% who said they anticipated making a major purchase now to avoid the possibility of a higher price later. The market researcher conducted the survey in late March, days before Trump unveiled steep tariffs on dozens of countries, almost all of which he later lowered for 90 days.
In another reflection of consumer caution, along with higher mortgage rates, home sales in March fell to the slowest pace since 2009, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Retailers, airlines, car manufacturers and more will be watching consumer behavior closely as they try to predict demand and buy inventory. Some of those companies have accelerated their own orders of longer-lasting and pricier durable goods, such as equipment, to beat tariff-related price hikes.
Here’s a look at what we know so far about consumers’ early response to tariffs.
Early buying
In tariff fear-buying, one category stands out: cars.
The auto sector outperformed the rest of the retail market in March, as sales excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.5%, while sales in the auto sector jumped 5.3%, the Commerce Department reported last week.
While Trump eased additional tariffs on many countries that export goods to the U.S., he has kept a 25% levy on all imported vehicles.
Consumers are rushing to showrooms to try to save thousands of dollars on a new vehicle.
Cox Automotive estimates the 25% tariff on non-U.S. assembled vehicles will increase the average cost of imported vehicles by $6,000, while the cost of vehicles assembled in the U.S. will rise by $3,600 due to upcoming 25% tariffs on automotive parts. Those are in addition to $300 to $500 hikes as a result of previously announced tariffs on steel and aluminum.
Automotive executives and dealers reported significant gains in showroom traffic and sales once Trump confirmed the tariffs late last month and into April.
“Concerns about potential future vehicle prices due to tariffs led to a surge in March sales, and April began with similar robustness,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive.
New vehicle sales were running 22% above the seasonally adjusted pace of last year and were up more than 8% through early April on a volume basis, according to Cox.
“It’s been busy. Everybody’s buying now because they’re afraid the prices are going up,” said Craig DeSerf, executive manager of Gulf Coast Chevrolet Buick GMC in Texas. “There’s kind of been a little bit of a buying frenzy, like almost a replay of Covid.”
Michael Bettenhausen, a dealer in Illinois and chair of the Stellantis dealer council, said there’s “no doubt” there has been a big pull ahead in sales due to the tariffs.
“It’s taken a little bit extra effort … to get the consumer to understand that the tariffs haven’t impacted us yet,” he said. “Our inventory on the ground is tariff-free. Obviously if you’re in the market and you’re looking to buy in the next 30 to 60 days, you’ll probably want to be doing it sooner rather than later.”
Higher sales are good for the automotive industry, after many analysts expected them to be roughly flat heading into the year. But there’s concern that sales could come to a grinding halt once automakers and dealers sell out of their tariff-free inventories.
“Inventory levels have declined substantially over recent weeks, likely pushing vehicle prices higher, so the end of April may not be as strong,” Chesbrough said. “With economic concerns rising and consumer confidence declining, the outlook for new auto sales from here is more troubling.”
Automotive vehicles topped the list of purchases that U.S. consumers reported that they made earlier than they otherwise would have because of tariffs, according to a survey by GlobalData of nearly 5,800 adults across the country in late March and early April.
Nearly 12% said tariffs had sped up their car purchase, followed by close to 10% of people who reported buying furniture earlier than planned and nearly 9% who reported purchasing large electronics.
Stockpiling
Yet when it comes to a wider range of merchandise like paper towels, clothing and more, there hasn’t been a meaningful rush to stock up.
Walmart Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey told reporters earlier this month at an investor day in Dallas that the nation’s largest retailer hasn’t seen “pandemic-like buying from our customers.”
He said the company saw consumers bulk ordering in some stores ahead of the port strike last fall, but hasn’t seen that now. But he did tell investors that the big-box retailer’s sales patterns have become less predictable week to week and even day to day.
“It’s just more volatility than what we typically see in our business,” he said, adding that bumpier consumer spending continued into April.
He attributed that to a mix of factors, including weaker consumer sentiment in February, poor weather in March and delayed timing of tax refunds.
Chris Nicholas, CEO of Walmart-owned Sam’s Club, told CNBC in an interview earlier this month that the warehouse club has not seen “any material change” when it comes to early purchases of items like appliances and consumer electronics.
A later Easter than a year ago has muddled sales results, too. Total spending rose to 3.8% for April through April 15 compared with about 2.7% in March, according to data from JPMorgan. A note from the bank attributed that to the “Easter effect,” since the holiday fell on March 31 a year ago.
That made the sales jumps look bigger leading up to this year’s Easter on April 20, since consumers tend to shop more ahead of the holiday.
Walmart’s Rainey said at the investor day that the discounter anticipated April would be its strongest month of the quarter because of the timing of Easter.
Even so, tariffs may have fueled some early purchases in April. Along with Easter’s timing shift, JPMorgan’s note credited “possible ‘binge’ purchases in anticipation of tariffs.”
Store visits increased year over year the first two full weeks in April at superstores, grocers and clothing retailers, according to Placer.ai, which tracks retail foot traffic. Yet store visits declined year over year at home improvement and furniture stores, the company found.
Delaying purchases and seeking deals
Whether consumers are shopping for everyday items like laundry detergent or booking an airline ticket, tariffs have made them reluctant to spend and more likely to hunt for deals, executives have said.
Procter & Gamble CFO Andre Schulten on Thursday said on a call with reporters that tariffs have led to “a more nervous consumer” who pulled back on spending in the last two months of the quarter.
“It’s not illogical to see the consumer adopt the ‘wait and see’ attitude, and we saw traffic down at retailers,” Schulten said. “We saw consumers basically looking for value, migrating into online, bigger box retail, into club [retailers].”
Outside of retailers’ aisles, more price-sensitive customers are pulling back on domestic airline bookings, industry executives said this month. Carriers are turning to fare sales to fill seats on domestic flights and trimming their schedules to shed excess capacity, though some warn revenue could fall this quarter from last year.
Airfare fell 5.3% in March after a 4% decline in February, according to the latest federal data.
Airline CEOs went into 2025 optimistic for a blockbuster year, but some have recently said demand started to weaken among government, corporate and economy-class leisure travel segments in February. Executives say economic uncertainty is keeping some customers on the sidelines.
Some industry executives noticed the weakening of business travel demand in recent months amid the trade war, volatile markets and mass government layoffs. Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian said on April 9 that in addition to weaker domestic leisure bookings, corporate travel demand — which started the year up 10% from 2024 — had turned flat.
At the same time, high-end travel demand from first class to premium economy, and outbound international demand have proven more resilient, airlines executives say.
Delta reported earlier this month that its domestic unit revenue fell 3% in the first quarter from a year earlier, while trans-Atlantic unit sales rose 8%. International flights make up a smaller share of the carrier’s overall ticket sales than domestic trips, however.
American Airlines on Thursday joined Alaska Airlines, Southwest Airlines and Delta in pulling its 2025 financial outlook. United Airlines took the unusual step of offering two forecasts, one if things are stable and one if the economy shrinks. But either way, it expects to make money this year.
American’s vice chair and chief strategy officer, Steve Johnson, said Thursday on an earnings call that the carrier has logged “significant weakness in the part of our business that’s very sensitive to economic conditions … for whom travel is really discretionary.”
“In those circumstances, you do see prices that are lower,” he said. “That’s going to continue to be the case until we understand … which direction the economy is going.”
Alaska Airlines warned Wednesday that weaker demand will eat into second-quarter earnings.
CFO Shane Tackett told CNBC that demand hasn’t plunged, but the carrier has lowered some fares to fill seats.
“The fares aren’t as strong as they were in the fourth quarter of last year and coming into January and first part of February,” he said in an interview Wednesday. “Demand is still quite high for the industry, but it’s just not at the peak that we all anticipated might continue coming out of last year.”
Retailers will kick off earnings season and share their latest numbers starting in mid-May.
NielsenIQ’s Zurek anticipates that U.S. consumers will spend less and save more in the coming months because of skittishness about the economic outlook and prices. During the pandemic, personal savings rates spiked as Americans had fewer ways to spend their money, according to the St. Louis Fed.
“When a shopper or a consumer is not sure what kind of financial punches they’re going to be taking in the future, they’re going to try to hoard cash,” he said.
Dallas resident Tiffany Armstrong is an example of that. The attorney said she is delaying a planned kitchen remodel until she has a clearer picture of how much new kitchen appliances and construction-related materials will cost.
“Between the uncertainty with pricing and the [stock] market, it doesn’t seem like a wise time,” she said.
Still, she made one exception by running to a nearby AT&T store to spring for an earlier-than-planned purchase of a new iPhone.
Days later, in a move that underscores how hard it is for consumers and businesses to plan, those Apple iPhones were exempted from tariffs.
— CNBC’s Amelia Lucas contributed to this report.
