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  • When Will Sensex Hit The 1 Lakh Milestone? Here’s What Data Says – News18

    When Will Sensex Hit The 1 Lakh Milestone? Here’s What Data Says – News18


    The BSE Sensex leapfrogged from 70,000 to 80,000 in a timeframe of less than 7 months. Considering the 16 per cent historical CAGR record of India’s headline equity index, Sensex can hit the milestone of 1 lakh mark as soon as December 2025.

    Considering the base value of Sensex at 100 in April 1979, the Dalal Street barometer has jumped 800 times in 45 years by growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.9 per cent. If Sensex continues to grow at the same pace of 15.9 per cent per annum, we will be staring at the 1-lakh landmark by December next year.

    Remarkable Growth

    The Sensex has surged 10 per cent in just 20 trading sessions, the fastest growth in its history. Though this rapid rally is driven by macroeconomic fundamentals, expectations of US Fed rate cuts, and pro-growth government policies, the speed at which the index is crossing new barriers makes sceptics feel it is too good to believe. It jumped from 70,000 to 80,000, the fastest 10,00 point rally too in less than 7 months or 139 sessions.

    As of today, Year-to-date the Sensex has gained nearly 11.06 per cent.

    When Can Sensex Hit 1 Lakh Mark?

    Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager – Technical Research Analyst, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, said: “Based on the historical Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of the Sensex, which is approximately 14-16 per cent, one could mathematically project that the Sensex might reach the 100,000 mark within a 1.5 to 2-year timeframe. However, it’s essential to consider that 2024 is a leap year, and historically, leap years often coincide with market corrections. This year, the Indian market has already faced massive volatility due to election results. Additionally, potential volatility might increase due to the upcoming budget announcement, which could lead to fluctuations or even a minor correction before the 2024 budget.”

    Technicals

    On the technical front, the 21-Day Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) stands around 77,837, and the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) is approximately 76,150, both significantly lower than the current market price of the Sensex. This discrepancy suggests that a pullback to around 76,000 could occur as part of a reversion to the mean. Additionally, the Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) long-short ratio for index futures is between 80-83 per cent, indicating heavy bullishness. Such high levels of bullish sentiment often precede a market correction.

    What Should Investors Do?

    For investors, a prudent investment strategy would involve booking profits at higher levels. “Given the potential for a market pullback, it would be wise to consider booking at least 30-40 per cent of profits if the Sensex tests the 81,000-81,500 range. This approach allows investors to lock in gains and be prepared to reinvest after a meaningful correction, ensuring they can capitalize on subsequent market movements,” Patel suggested.

    Disclaimer:Disclaimer: The views and investment tips by experts in this News18.com report are their own and not those of the website or its management. Users are advised to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

    Aparna Deb

    Aparna Deb is a Subeditor and writes for the business vertical of News18.com. She has a nose for news that matters. She is inquisitive and curious abo…Read More



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  • Raging Bulls! Sensex Surges 950 pts, Investors Gain Rs 3.55 lk cr; Why Market is Rising?

    Raging Bulls! Sensex Surges 950 pts, Investors Gain Rs 3.55 lk cr; Why Market is Rising?


    Why is Sensex Rising today? Domestic markets extended gains in Monday’s intra-day trade, as improved global cues and low-level buying pushed indices higher, which led to short covering, which, in turn, aided more buying. Furthermore, investor focus also turned to corporate health as earnings season kicks off today with TCS results.

    The BSE Sensex was trading 951 points or 1.59 per cent higher at 60,851. Nifty50 was trading at 18,131, up 271 points or 1.52 per cent at around 11.35 am. Investors, meanwhile, turned richer by Rs 3.55 lakh crore amid broad-based buying as bulls returned to Dalal Street after three-day hiatus.

    Frontline stocks such as Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services and Reliance Industries contributed to the climb.

    As many as 101 stocks hit their 52-week lows today. BSE stocks such as Abbott India, IDBI Bank and Jindal Steel and 98 other stocks hit their respective one-year high levels. That said, 24 stocks touched their one-year low levels today.

    Here are the factors driving the market:

    US Job Data

    US payrolls expanded even as wage increases slowed and eased worries about the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate hike decisions. The US central bank has repeatedly blamed high wages and job growth for the higher inflation and hence its continued hawkish stance.

    “Data points released on Friday points to a strong but cooling US economy, which indicates the rising possibility of a soft landing for the US economy,” said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

    “They point to cooling inflation and the possibility of the Fed going less hawkish in 2023. The market has already started discounting this with the dollar index declining below 104 and the US 10-year bond yield declining by 12 bps. All signals are bullish.”

    One basis point (bp) is one-hundredth of a percentage point.

    Global Markets

    Wall Street’s main indexes all gained more than 2 per cent on Friday after December payrolls expanded more than expected even as wage increases slowed and services activity contracted, easing worries about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking path.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 700.53 points, or 2.13 per cent, to 33,630.61; the S&P 500 gained 86.98 points, or 2.28 per cent, at 3,895.08; and the Nasdaq Composite added 264.05 points, or 2.56 per cent, at 10,569.29.

    Asian shares rallied on Monday as hopes for less aggressive US rate hikes and the opening of China’s borders bolstered the outlook for the global economy.

    Earnings Season

    Even as expectations are that the IT sector will see a slowdown in growth, buying was seen in TCS, Infosys, Tech Mahindra and HCL Tech.

    The country’s biggest IT services company TCS will share its third-quarter results later in the day.

    Other IT names, including those from midcap space, also saw buying interest on hopes of a positive surprise.

    Any improvement in economic conditions in the US is also positive for IT companies. Hence, slowdown in wage and jobs data was inferred to be positive for IT companies as well, some analysts said.

    Disclaimer:Disclaimer: The views and investment tips by experts in this News18.com report are their own and not those of the website or its management. Users are advised to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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    Aparna Deb

    Aparna Deb is a Subeditor and writes for the business vertical of News18.com. Among other things, financial market, economy and policies interest her …Read More



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  • Sensex Falls Over 300 Points, Extending Losses For Second Straight Session

    Sensex Falls Over 300 Points, Extending Losses For Second Straight Session


    Stock Market India: Sensex, Nifty open in the red

    Indian equity benchmarks extended losses for the second straight session on Thursday as rising Covid cases in China alarmed investors who had anticipated the world’s second-largest economy to pick up steam following the easing of strict restrictions. 

    After closing marginally lower in the previous session, the BSE Sensex index fell 300.33 points to 60,609.95 in early trade on Thursday, and the broader NSE Nifty index opened in the red, reflecting a fall in wider Asian share markets along with oil prices.

    As traders try to settle their futures and options (F&)) contracts for the December derivatives, the last series of 2022, the expiry on Thursday could cause a spike in volatility.

    “Markets are likely to see a bearish opening on Thursday in view of weak global cues after US markets slumped overnight amidst rising bond yields over fears that inflation could pick up on China’s reopening,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior Vice President For Research at Mehta Equities.

    “Volatility is likely to be the hallmark for the day as traders roll-over December F&O contracts to January,” he added.

    The broader MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares, barring Japan, was down over 1 per cent and on track to post losses for the third consecutive week.

    Markets have remained muted due to worries that measures by central banks to manage inflation could cause an economic downturn and the uncertainty around how China’s economy will perform after the easing of Covid restrictions have also weighed on risk assets, with Wall Street shares ending in the red overnight.

    Since Beijing began dismantling its zero-COVID policy at the beginning of the month, its healthcare sector has been under much strain.

    On a light trading day, equity indexes in South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, and Japan fell by more than 1 per cent.

    After the S&P 500 index dropped 1.2 per cent to its lowest level in more than a month, futures contracts for European equities declined while those for the S&P 500 see-sawed between gains and losses.

    After a terrible year for the financial markets, optimism was dampened in the final trading week of 2022 by the possibility of additional pandemic damage to weak supply chains as central banks struggle to manage inflation.

    A worldwide bond index has fallen 16 per cent, while global equities have lost a fifth of their value, the biggest annual loss since 2008. The US 10-year yield has risen from 1.5 per cent at the end of 2021 to above 3.8 per cent due to the dollar’s 7 per cent increase.

    China’s reopening “complicates the Fed’s job with respect to putting a little bit of a bid under oil prices, putting a little bit of a bid under inflation globally, to aggregate demand,” said Sameer Samana, Senior Global Market Strategist for Wells Fargo Investment Institute, on Bloomberg TV.

    “That’s going to be one of the biggest things that we’ll be watching in the first half,” he added.

    As the number of COVID-19 cases in China increased, there was less optimism for a rebound in fuel demand in the second-largest oil consumer in the world, pushing crude prices lower.

    That crude price fall could cap the domestic shares losses as India depends on imports for over 85 per cent of its oil needs.  

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  • Sensex Rallies For Second Straight Day, Rises Over 360 Points Boosted By China Repeoning

    Sensex Rallies For Second Straight Day, Rises Over 360 Points Boosted By China Repeoning


    Stock Market India: Benchmark equity indices rally for the second day in a row

    Indian equity benchmarks rallied for the second straight session on Tuesday, driven by improved risk sentiment buoyed by China reopening, bolstering hopes for a resurgence in demand in the world’s second-largest economy.

    The BSE Sensex index surged 361.01 points, or 0.6 per cent, to close at 60,927.43, and the broader NSE Nifty-50 index jumped 117.7 points, or 0.65 per cent, to end at 18,132.30.

    Domestic benchmarks had reversed course to rally sharply on Monday in a low-volume session, stalling a four-day losing streak, with the Sensex rallying 721.13 points, or 1.2 per cent, to close at 60,566.42, and the Nifty rose 207.80 points, or 1.17 per cent, to end at 18,014.60.

    “Investors will be hoping that stocks will stage a Santa Claus rally, bringing some more respite to the markets. However, volatility is likely to be the hallmark in the near term amidst December F&O (futures and options) expiry this Thursday,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior Vice President for Research at Mehta Equities.

    Following China’s decision to lift the quarantine imposed on foreign tourists, shares of travel and consumer products increased in Tokyo and Seoul.

    The latest change from China shows that economic activity in most major cities may quickly return to normal, which is fantastic news for investors, according to Chaoping Zhu, Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, reported Reuters.

    “Most Chinese cities could recover from the first wave of the latest COVID-19 outbreak by January…this would be faster than people have expected,” he said, adding there was the concern of an outbreak lasting longer and weighing on the economy, but that developments have been in general better than expected.

    The consumer and service businesses outside of China, notably those in neighbouring Southeast Asia, will benefit from the opening of China, which also means that Chinese tourists will once again be permitted to travel, added Mr Zhu.

    Data released on Friday showed the Federal Reserve’s preferred price index easing while consumer spending stagnating helped underpin the gain of futures contracts for US and European markets as traders return to their terminals on Tuesday following the Christmas holiday.

    Still, the US, Asian, and international stocks have fallen by nearly 20 per cent this year, which is the worst yearly performance since 2008.

    Meanwhile, in the energy market, Tuesday saw oil prices jump to a three-week high due to worries that the production and logistics of shale oil and petroleum products are being hampered by winter storms sweeping the US.

    Oil prices were rising toward $85 per barrel, also boosted by the outlook for demand from China as the economy reopens.

    After being whipsawed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, concerns about a global recession, and most recently, a ferocious Covid-19 wave in China as restrictions are eased, oil is expected to conclude the year slightly higher. 

    Last week, crude rose more than 7 per cent as Russia threatened to reduce production by as much as 700,000 barrels per day in reaction to sanctions.

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  • Sensex Rises Over 280 Points, Extending Gains From Monday’s Blistering Rally

    Sensex Rises Over 280 Points, Extending Gains From Monday’s Blistering Rally

    Stock Market India: Sensex, Nifty open in the green

    Indian equity benchmarks rose in early trade on Tuesday, extending gains after a blistering rally in the previous session when domestic stocks stalled a four-day losing run.

    The BSE Sensex index rose 287.55 points, or 0.47 per cent, to 60,853.97 in early trade, and the broader NSE Nifty-50 index jumped 81 points, or 0.45 per cent, to 18,095.60, reflecting a broader positive mood in Asian indexes.

    Domestic benchmarks had reversed course to rally sharply on Monday in a low-volume session, stalling a four-day losing streak, with the Sensex rallying 721.13 points, or 1.2 per cent, to close at 60,566.42, and the Nifty rose 207.80 points, or 1.17 per cent, to end at 18,014.60.

    “Markets may start on a higher note on Tuesday tracking gains in global indices, as investors resort to more short covering and value buying following the recent sell-off,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior Vice President for Research at Mehta Equities.

    “Investors will be hoping that stocks will stage a Santa Claus rally, bringing some more respite to the markets. However, volatility is likely to be the hallmark in the near term amidst December F&O expiry this Thursday,” he added.

    Globally, stock markets rose, and the US currency declined on Tuesday on improved risk appetite after China announced it would remove its quarantine requirements for incoming tourists, significantly easing three-year border controls intended to stop COVID-19.

    According to Chaoping Zhu, Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, the most recent policy change from China suggests that economic activity in the majority of big cities may swiftly return to normal, which is excellent news for investors, reported Reuters. 

    “Most Chinese cities could recover from the first wave of the latest COVID-19 outbreak by January…this would be faster than people have expected,” he said, adding there was concern of an outbreak lasting longer and weighing on the economy, but that developments have been in general better than expected.

    He added that the opening of China, which also means that Chinese tourists will be allowed to travel again, will boost the consumer and service industries outside of the nation, particularly those in neighbouring Southeast Asia.

    As traders return to their terminals on Tuesday following the Christmas holiday, stocks are expected to climb, derived from US stock futures, which rose in low volumes trading as some markets, like those in Australia and Hong Kong, are still closed.

    Meanwhile in the energy market, Tuesday saw a little increase in oil prices due to worries that the production and logistics of shale oil and petroleum products are being hampered by winter storms sweeping the US.

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  • Sensex Surges And Nifty Ends Above 18,000 To Stall A 4-Day Bear Run

    Sensex Surges And Nifty Ends Above 18,000 To Stall A 4-Day Bear Run

    Stock Market India: Sensex, Nifty surge to stall four straight days of losses

    Indian equity benchmarks reversed course to rally sharply on Monday in a low-volume session, stalling a four-day losing streak, even as fears remain over China’s ability to adapt after abandoning its Covid Zero policy and quelled the appetite for risk-taking.

    Bouncing back from four days of losses and a weaker opening, the 30-share BSE Sensex index rallied 721.13, or 1.2 per cent, to close at 60,566.42, and the broader NSE Nifty-50 index rose 207.80 points, or 1.17 per cent, to end at 18,014.60.

    The domestic stocks rallied despite cautious trading and reduced liquidity with many markets closed for holidays.

    “I expect the markets to recover sharply as the punishment meted out on Thursday and Friday was unwarranted”, G Chokkalingam, Founder and Head of Research at Equinomics Research and Advisory, told Reuters.

    However, Mr Chokkalingam cautioned of low volumes. “Normally, trading is thin this time of the year. Expect dullness in the market as foreign institutional activity dies down as they go on holidays.”

    The rupee, too, rose sharply against the dollar, recouping all it Friday’s losses and some.

    While global stock markets that were open made small advances, the positive impact of recent US inflation data was partially offset by worries about China’s ability to adapt after abandoning its Covid Zero policy.

    China’s National Health Commission announced it would stop providing daily coronavirus case data in the midst of a new wave of infections, making it more difficult for investors to evaluate the virus’s economic impact.

    “The undertone is likely to remain cautious,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior Vice President for Research at Mehta Equities.

    “Relentless cascade of COVID-19 news is likely to make any investment decision challenging in the near term, as markets fear the risk of new virus spread could bring back stricter lockdowns,” he added.

    The Federal Reserve’s closely monitored measure of inflation dropped and consumer spending was stagnant, according to data released on Friday. According to a University of Michigan survey, consumer expectations for inflation in the coming year decreased this month to their lowest level since June 2021.

    Even though US stocks ended the week higher on Friday after that data, the S&P 500 and the heavily tech-focused Nasdaq 100 nevertheless recorded weekly losses.

    “The US is enjoying ‘Christmas day’ today and UK/Europe is enjoying ‘Boxing Day’. S&P is on track for a more than 6 per cent decline this month, its fourth worst December on record as US value funds and passive equities had record weekly net outflows,” said Amit Pabari, Managing Director of CR Forex Advisors.

    The performance of global stocks in 2022 as a whole was the worst it has been in more than a decade. Global stocks faced major turning points in 2022 after a two-year bull run that was fueled by liquidity as Russia invaded Ukraine, the US Fed waged a fierce struggle against inflation, and a disaster enveloped international financial markets.

    “The Fed has been telling us they are going to tighten financial conditions until a recession or something ‘breaks’,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, wrote in a note, according to Bloomberg.

    “This is not a great place to own speculative assets, especially the long-duration variety telling me in times like this, cash itself is the best at the money put.”

    Still, in a challenging year, the Sensex has outperformed its competitors, with domestic investors supporting the benchmark during this year’s crises.

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  • Sensex Recoups To Rally Over 650 Points, Stalling A 4-Day Losing Streak

    Sensex Recoups To Rally Over 650 Points, Stalling A 4-Day Losing Streak

    Stock Market India: Sensex, Nifty open in the red

    Indian equity benchmarks reversed course to rally on Monday, stalling a four-day losing streak, even as stocks and currencies were trading mixed in Asia as fears over China’s ability to adapt after abandoning its Covid Zero policy quelled the appetite for risk-taking.

    Bouncing back from four days of losses and a weaker opening, the 30-share BSE Sensex index was last trading 653.32 points higher at 60,498.61, and the broader NSE Nifty-50 index rose 186 points to 17,992.80, despite cautious trading and reduced liquidity with many markets closed for holidays.

    Tata Steel, State Bank of India, HDFC Bank, UltraTech Cement, IndusInd Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, HDFC, and Power Grid were the top gainers from the Sensex pack.

    Only Bharti Airtel continued to lag behind.

    “After last week’s sell-off, markets are likely to consolidate in early trades Monday, amid gains in other Asian indices. However, the undertone is likely to remain cautious with bouts of intra-day volatility,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior Vice President for Research at Mehta Equities.

    “Relentless cascade of COVID-19 news is likely to make any investment decision challenging in the near term, as markets fear the risk of new virus spread could bring back stricter lockdowns,” he added.

    As investors analysed data showing that US inflation is continuing to decline and the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are having the desired effect, shares on Wall Street concluded Friday’s session with gains.

    Asian markets benefited somewhat from this, but the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 still had their third consecutive weeks of losses.

    “The US is enjoying ‘Christmas day’ today and UK/Europe is enjoying ‘Boxing Day’. S&P is on track for a more than 6 per cent decline this month, its fourth worst December on record as US value funds and passive equities had record weekly net outflows,” said Amit Pabari, Managing Director of CR Forex Advisors.

    2022 as a year has been the worst annual performance for global stocks in more than ten years. After a two-year liquidity-fuelled bull run, global stocks faced several moments of reckoning in 2022 as Russia marched into Ukraine, the US Federal Reserve came out all guns blazing in its war against inflation and a cataclysm engulfed global financial markets.

    “The Fed has been telling us they are going to tighten financial conditions until a recession or something ‘breaks’,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, wrote in a note. “This is not a great place to own speculative assets, especially the long-duration variety telling me in times like this, cash itself is the best at the money put.”

    Still, the Sensex has outperformed its peers in a tough year, with domestic investors supporting the benchmark through crisis after crisis this year.

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  • Sensex Falls Modestly In Global Holiday-Thinned Trading Session

    Sensex Falls Modestly In Global Holiday-Thinned Trading Session

    Stock Market India: Sensex, Nifty open in the red

    Indian equity benchmarks extended losses for the fifth straight day on Monday, with trading in stocks and currencies mixed in Asia as fears over China’s ability to adapt after abandoning its Covid Zero policy quelled the appetite for risk-taking.

    The 30-share BSE Sensex index fell 31.3 points to 59,813.99, and the broader NSE Nifty-50 index opened in the red amid cautious trading and reduced liquidity with many markets closed for holidays.

    “After last week’s sell-off, markets are likely to consolidate in early trades Monday, amid gains in other Asian indices. However, the undertone is likely to remain cautious with bouts of intra-day volatility,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior Vice President for Research at Mehta Equities.

    “Relentless cascade of COVID-19 news is likely to make any investment decision challenging in the near term, as markets fear the risk of new virus spread could bring back stricter lockdowns,” he added.

    As investors analysed data showing that US inflation is continuing to decline and the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are having the desired effect, shares on Wall Street concluded Friday’s session with gains.

    Asian markets benefited somewhat from this, but the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 still had their third consecutive weeks of losses.

    “The US is enjoying ‘Christmas day’ today and UK/Europe is enjoying ‘Boxing Day’. S&P is on track for a more than 6 per cent decline this month, its fourth worst December on record as US value funds and passive equities had record weekly net outflows,” said Amit Pabari, Managing Director of CR Forex Advisors.

    2022 as a year has been the worst annual performance for global stocks in more than ten years. After a two-year liquidity-fuelled bull run, global stocks faced several moments of reckoning in 2022 as Russia marched into Ukraine, the US Federal Reserve came out all guns blazing in its war against inflation and a cataclysm engulfed global financial markets.

    “The Fed has been telling us they are going to tighten financial conditions until a recession or something ‘breaks’,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, wrote in a note. “This is not a great place to own speculative assets, especially the long-duration variety telling me in times like this, cash itself is the best at the money put.”

    Still, the Sensex has outperformed its peers in a tough year, with domestic investors supporting the benchmark through crisis after crisis this year.

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