Ukraine war live updates: Ukraine says it needs China for any peace process with Russia; Davos overshadowed by ongoing war

The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are set to cast a long shadow over the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week.

Global business and political leaders and officials are expected to focus on the ongoing fighting in Ukraine as it approaches its second anniversary and a political resolution seems a distant prospect.

“Rebuilding Trust” is the main theme of the 54th annual economic forum that runs from Jan. 15-19. Aside from war, global trade, inflation, supply chains and technological change are expected to be high on the agenda.

Perhaps the most heavyweight political figures set to be in attendance are China’s second-in-command Li Qiang and French President Emmanuel Macron, who will both give special addresses.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his delegation will also be in attendance, trying to galvanize support for the country at a time when the outlook for ongoing international aid is looking shaky.

Ukraine has opened “Ukraine House Davos” at WEF and will be presenting speakers and events aimed at maintaining a spotlight on the war and Kyiv’s needs.

— Holly Ellyatt

The United Nations and its partners on Monday appealed for a combined $4.2 billion from donors to support war-ravaged communities in Ukraine as well as Ukrainian refugees in 2024.

“Hundreds of thousands of children live in communities on the front lines of the war, terrified, traumatized and deprived of their basic needs,” said U.N. aid chief Martin Griffiths.

“That fact alone should compel us to do everything we can to bring more humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.”

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said that more than 14.6 million people, or 40% of Ukraine’s population, will need humanitarian assistance this year due to Russia’s full-scale invasion.

More than 3.3 million of the people in need live in front-line communities in the east and the south of the country, including in territories occupied by Russia, access to which remains “significantly impeded”, according to OCHA.

As part of the appeal, OCHA is asking for $3.1 billion to help 8.5 million people in dire need of humanitarian aid in 2024. The U.N. refugee agency is seeking $1.1 billion to support 2.3 million Ukrainian refugees and their host communities.

Russia’s invasion, launched in February 2022, has forced some 6.3 million people to flee abroad. Four million people, including nearly one million children, remain displaced within the country, according to OCHA.

“Host countries continue to extend protection and include them in society, but many vulnerable refugees still need help,” said Filippo Grandi, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees.

“They shouldn’t feel pressed to return because they cannot make ends meet in exile.”

— Reuters

Political and military experts stress that most wars end with some kind of diplomacy and negotiations — and an eventual political solution, whether the participants like it or not. But neither Russia nor Ukraine seems to be at a point where a political resolution is palatable.

This is especially true while Ukraine continues to receive international military aid and fighting remains intense in the south and east of the country, where Russian units are deeply entrenched, preventing Ukraine’s forces from making significant advances, but also hampering Russian attempts to advance.

“You never want to go to the negotiation table without having the upper hand in a conflict,” retired Army Lt. Gen. Stephen Twitty, former deputy commander of the U.S. European Command, told CNBC.

“Because if you go with the upper hand, you’re able to dictate and control what comes out of the negotiations. In this case, neither side has the upper hand.”

Sam Cranny-Evans, defense analyst at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, told CNBC that “the challenge for Ukraine is to make it seem like Russia cannot achieve its aims militarily and so it comes to any negotiations, if and when they happen, from a position of relative strength.”

″[But] if Putin feels like the Russian armed forces can still deliver the political goals that he’s set, then there’s not a lot of impetus to negotiate, or the mindset that he’ll come to negotiations with will be very hard.”

Read more on the story here: Ukraine and Russia say they want the war to end. But military and political experts say they’re nowhere near peace talks

— Holly Ellyatt

China needs to be involved in talks to end the war with Russia, Ukraine’s top representative said after a high-level diplomatic meeting ahead of the World Economic Forum in Switzerland.

Ukraine’s presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak said on Sunday it was important that Russian ally China was at the table when Kyiv convenes further meetings on its peace formula.

Zelenskyy is due to arrive in Bern, Switzerland on Monday to meet the President of the Swiss Confederation Viola Amherd.

Swiss Federal Councillor Ignazio Cassis, who attended Sunday’s discussions, told an earlier news conference: “We must do everything to end this war.”

“China plays a significant role. We must find ways to work with China on this,” Cassis said, adding that both Russia and Ukraine were not willing to make concessions.

Zelenskyy is also likely to meet JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon at Davos this week as he tries to seek support to shore up funds for Ukraine, a source familiar with the matter said. Bloomberg News first reported about Zelenskyy’s plans to meet Dimon.

— Reuters